If these Card Look Different, It's Because they Are

If you think there’s nothing new under the poker-playing sun, look again. The cards have changed. Really.

Bicycle, the world’s largest maker of playing cards, will roll out their new Bicycle Pro "PokerPeek" playing card at the 2007 World Series of Poker. PokerPeek is a new design that allows players to see their hole cards without having to lift the card corners very high when checking to see whether they’ve been dealt A-A or 7-2.

According to Rob Clendening, Bicycle Brand Manager. "Bicycle Pro with PokerPeek is the first significant face style change for playing cards in decades. The card itself also delivers technical superiority and the highest quality paper card suitable for professionals, now available to anyone who is serious about the game."

Well, it’s not quite that innovative. I thought the four-color deck was a cool innovation, but it came crashing down in failure. I like the idea of the PokerPeek innovation, but I haven’t played with them yet. I’ll give you my impressions after I do.

Who Will Make the Final Table?

Early odds on a UK betting site are out. You can bet on a player reaching the final table. Here are the favorites at this early date:

Phil Ivey 20-to-1
Daniel Negreanu 33-to-1
Carlos Mortensen 33-to-1
Allen Cunningham 33-to-1
Phil Hellmuth 40-to-1
Howard Lederer 40-to-1
Antonio Esfandiari 40-to-1
Michael Mizrachi 40-to-1
JC Tran 40-to-1
Erik Seidel 40-to-1
Johnny Chan 40-to-1

At 50-to-1 are Chris Ferguson, Barry Greenstein, Dan Harrington, Gus Hansen, Doyle Brunson, Ted Forrest, John Juanda, Scott Fischman, Scotty Nguyen, Erick Lindgren, Joe Hachem, and John “World” Hennigan.

I’m sure these odds will fluctuate and change as the main event draws near, but there are players that appear overvalued and others that look to be a bargain. But handicapping an event with thousands of entrants is always tough, and the chances of a final table comprised mostly of players no one has ever heard of is always a realistic possibility.

Let the wagering begin.

They Got it Right and I'm Applauding

There’s no poker content in this post, but anyone who knows me, knows I’m a big lacrosse fan, and this is worth posting if for no other reason what’s right sometimes prevails.

Thirty-three Duke lacrosse players who were not seniors during the 2006 season were granted a fifth year of eligibility for play at Duke or any other school by the NCAA. The University requested an extra year of eligibility following trumped-up and now discharged rape allegations that resulted in most of last season being canceled.

Current seniors will be eligible to play next year by taking graduate-level courses. Coach John Danowski plans to talk with his seniors about continuing to play lacrosse at Duke.

Unanimous support from the Atlantic Coast Conference universities accompanied Duke’s request for a fifth year of NCAA eligibility for its lacrosse players.

A full-page ad in USA Today supported Duke’s lacrosse program. The headline read, "For a team very few people stood by, how about a standing ovation?"

I’m standing and applauding. Everyone should.

World Series of Poker Schedule

OK, here it is. The World Series of Poker begins in just a few days. The entire schedule is reproduced below. While there are 55 events, it’s impossible to play all of them. The first 20 events are slated to run June 1-June11. That’s two events per day, one at noon and the other at 5:00 PM. So while there are more World Series events than ever before, when it comes to playing them, there are not as many as one might imagine.

If that’s not enough, this year there’s direct competition for the WSOP visitor. The Bellagio Cup III runs from June 11 through July 15 and it's an all hold'em tournament series; the Venetian’s Deep Stack Extravaganza II is scheduled to begin June 1, 2007, and end July 1, 2007. The Venetian's tournament starts with a significant amount of chips, generous blind structures and 40 or 60 minute levels and was designed to complement and run concurrently with the World Series of Poker. It includes no-limit hold’em, Omaha/8, pot-limit Omaha. and HORSE tournaments.

If all these big buy-in tournaments are too rich for your blood, there’s always Binion’s Poker Classic. It runs from June 1-July 4, and most of the events come with a $150 or $200 price tag, although there are two $500 events and one with a $1,000 buy-in.

More information can be found at the web sites of the host casinos. But just because it's the granddaddy of all poker tournaments, here a schedule for the WSOP:

The 2007 World Series of Poker schedule.

Event #1 June 1 12pm $5,000 World Championship Mixed Limit/NL Hold’em (3-day event)

Event #2 June 1 5pm $500 Casino Employee NL (2-day event)

Event #3 June 2 12pm $1,500 NL (3-day event)

Event #4 June 3 12pm $1,500 Pot-limit Hold ‘em (3 day event)

Event #5 June 3 5pm $2,500 Omaha/Seven Card Stud 8 or Better (3-day event)

Event #6 June 4 12pm $1,500 Limit Hold ‘em (3-day event)

Event #7 June 4 5pm $5,000 PLO w/rebuys (2-day event)

Event #8 June 5 12pm $1,000 NL w/rebuys (3-day event)

Event #9 June 5 5pm $1,500 Omaha 8 or Better (3-day event)

Event #10 June 6 12pm $2,000 NL (3-day event)

Event #11 June 6 5pm $5,000 World Championship Seven Card Stud (3-day event)

Event #12 June 7 12pm $1,500 NL Hold ‘em / Six Handed (3-day event)

Event #13 June 8 12pm $5,000 World Championship Pot-limit Hold ‘em (3-day event)

Event #14 June 8 5pm $1,500 Seven Card Stud (2-day event)

Event #15 June 9 12pm $1,500 NL (3-day event)

Event #16 June 9 5pm $2,500 HORSE (3-day event)

Event #17 June 10 12pm $1,000 World Championship Ladies Event NL (3-day event)

Event #18 June 10 5pm $5,000 World Championship Limit Hold ‘em (3-day event)

Event #19 June 11 12pm $2,500 NL (3-day event)

Event #20 June 11 5pm $2,000 Seven Card Stud 8 or Better (3-day event)

Event #21 June 12 12pm $1,500 NL shootout (2-day event)

Event #22 June 13 12pm $5,000 NL (3-day event)

Event #23 June 14 12pm $1,500 PLO (2-day event)

Event #24 June 14 5pm $3,000 World Championship Seven Card Stud 8 or Better (3-day event)

Event #25 June 15 12pm $2,000 NL (3-day event)

Event #26 June 15 5pm $5,000 HORSE (3-day event)

Event #27 June 16 12pm $1,500 NL (3-day event)

Event #28 June 17 12pm $3,000 NL (3-day event)

Event #29 June 17 5pm $1,500 Seven Card Razz (2-day event)

Event #30 June 18 12pm $2,500 NL - 6 handed (3-day event)

Event #31 June 19 12pm $5,000 World Championship Heads Up NL (3-day event)

Event #32 June 19 5pm $2,000 Seven Card Stud (2-day event)

Event #33 June 20 12pm $1,500 PLO w/rebuys (2-day event)

Event #34 June 20 5pm $3,000 Limit Hold ‘em (3-day event)

Event #35 June 21 12pm $1,500 NL (3-day event)

Event #36 June 21 5pm $5,000 World Championship Omaha 8 or Better (3-day event)

Event #37 June 22 12pm $2,000 Pot-limit Hold ‘em (3-day event)

Event #38 June 23 12pm $1,500 NL (3 day event)

Event #39 June 24 12pm $50,000 World Championship HORSE (5-day event)

Event #40 June 24 5pm $1,500 Mixed Hold ‘em (Limit/NL - 3-day event)

Event #41 June 25 12pm 41 $1,000 World Championship Seniors NL (3-day event)

Event #42 June 25 5pm $1,500 PLO 8 or Better (2-day event)

Event #43 June 26 12pm $2,000 Limit Hold ‘em (3-day event)

Event #44 June 27 12pm $2,000 Omaha Hi-Low Split (2-day event)

Event #45 June 28 12pm $5,000 NL Six-Handed (3-day event)

Event #46 June 28 5pm $1,000 Seven Card Stud Hi-Lo 8 or Better (3-day event)

Event #47 June 29 12pm $2,000 NL (3-day event)

Event #48 June 29 5pm $1,000 2-7 Triple Draw Lowball (Limit) w/rebuys (2-day event)

Event #49 June 30 12pm $1,500 NL (3-day event)

Event #50 July 1 12pm $10,000 World Championship PLO (2-day event)

Event #51 July 1 5pm $1,000 S.H.O.E. (2-day event)

Event #52 July 2 12pm $1,000 NL w/rebuys (3-day event)

Event #53 July 3 12pm $1,500 Limit Hold ‘em Shootout

Event #54 July 4 12pm $5,000 World Championship NL 2-7 Draw Lowball w/rebuys (2-day event)

...and here's the big kahuna:

Event #55 2007 WSOP Main Event Championship $10,000, no-limit hold'em

July 6 12pm Day 1A - 3000 Players

July 7 12pm Day 1B - 3000 Players

July 8 12pm Day 1C - 3000 Players

July 9 Day Off

July 10 12pm Day 2

July 11 12pm Day 3

July 12 12pm Day 4

July 13 12pm Day 5

July 14 12pm Day 6

July 15 12pm Day 7

July 16 Day Off

July 17 12pm Final Table

What's Your Opinion: Are Online Games Getting Tougher?

Are the games at US facing sites getting tighter and tougher?

It seems that way to me. Right now, at 5:00 PM PST, I’m surfing Poker Stars and these are the stats for the average number of players per flop. I’m not sure how Poker Stars derives this statistic, but I’m assuming it’s the average number of players who enter the flop voluntarily and does not include the blinds or players who post after missing their blinds. These stats are all from ten-handed, fixed-limit games.

At two, full, $30-$60 tables, the percentages were 11 and 23 percent.

At two, full, $10-$20 tables, the percentages were 16 and 19 percent.

At five, full, $5-$10 tables, the percentages were 23, 24, 23, 26, and 21 percent.

At nine full, $3-$6 tables, the percentages were 19, 21, 24, 27, 24, 25, 16, 19, and 16 percent.

At six, full, $1-$2 tables, the percentages were 26, 24, 28, 23, 25, and 18 percent.

My subjective take is that these games are significantly tighter than similar games found in brick-and-mortar card casinos. I don’t know whether that’s due to the fact that many weaker online players have gone broke and abandoned ship because of the difficulty in reloading from US-based accounts. There’s no way for me to go inside these numbers and figure that out with certainty. But I’d sure guess that’s the reason.

Have any of you noticed this? If you have, I’d love to know your opinion on this topic.

Will the US Try to Walk Away From Its Treaty Obligations?

The US decided against an appeal in its World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute with Antigua. The United States now plans to withdraw from its obligations regarding gambling and betting services. Under WTO treaty obligations, this leaves the US open to damage claims from any WTO member adversely affected by their withdrawal. Those claim must be resolved through a negotiated settlement or arbitrated before the US may withdraw their commitment.

Antigua’s reaction was swift and sharp, and the small island nation of 70,000 has attracted support from Brazil, India, and the European Union.

John Ashe, Antigua’s ambassador to the WTO, said, “There is something clearly wrong with the concept that after a long, difficult struggle covering years of dispute resolution at the WTO an offending member could ultimately avoid the consequences of its loss by withdrawing the commitment that gave rise to the claim in the first place. As far as we are concerned, our dispute has been resolved and the US remains obligated to comply.”

According to Antigua’s lead attorney on this issue, Mark Mendel, “While we will not know until the filing deadline in mid-June, we have heard rumblings that substantial trading partners such as the EURO are seriously considering filing claims for compensatory adjustments. The potential adverse impact upon completely unrelated US business interests could be massive.”

The New Pirates of the Caribbean

Antigua and Barbuda—an island nation in the Caribbean of 70,000—has asked that the World Trade Organization (WTO) allow it to suspend its intellectual property obligations to the United States.

Although the US government (read: Bush Administration) has shrugged their shoulders at the tiny nation’s victory at the World Trade Organization and have stated that they will do nothing about it, the Antiguans bat last and they’re carrying a very big stick.

Most trade disputes are based on tariffs. Your price subsidy leads to my retaliatory tariffs; you get the picture. But Antigua can’t play that game on equal footing with the United States. With only 70,000 people any retaliation on their part won’t ever be felt by a country the size of the United States. So what’s a (small) body to do? Well, it seems the WTO treaty obligations have an answer for that.

Repeated violation of WTO commitments following a contrary WTO ruling allows a victimized country such as Antigua to suspend its own obligations to the offending nation. This is much more damaging than tariff adjustments could ever be.

If the WTO allows Antigua to suspend all intellectual property obligations to the United States, Antigua would have an unlimited right to reproduce software, music, or any other intellectual property for its own benefit. In other words, Antigua could practice intellectual property piracy with the full and complete blessings of all the nations that are signatories to WTO agreements, and that’s most of the trading nations we do business with on a daily basis.

America has continued efforts to eradicate internet gambling in the three years since Antigua challenged—and defeated—the US before the WTO. Antigua’s plan was to develop its e-commerce segment to reduce its dependence on tourism, but American interference has caused the Antiguan online gaming industry to shrink by about 85 per cent.

Antigua is not alone in their plight, either. The UK has seen the DOJ has repeatedly arrest British executives who happened to set foot in the United States. How long can this go on? I’m not sure, but I do know that intellectual property giants such as Microsoft will wield a heavy hammer in Washington if US actions allow tiny Antigua to protect itself by inviting software pirates to their shores. If Antigua does this, you’ll see a brand new version of Pirates of the Caribbean. No swords and cutlasses here, matey; these modern day pirates will be copying and selling clone products at a fraction of the price, as they drink rum punch and dip their toes in the warm Atlantic waters.

The US was one of the driving forces behind the creation of the WTO, and has gotten more from it than they will ever lose in the Antigua dispute. Even now the US is threatening to bring cases against China to the WTO, and these are trade disputes where real money is at stake. The WTO certainly can’t be expected to look favorably at the United States in one dispute when they continue to refuse to obey WTO findings and rulings in another.

Tales from the Darkside

Jill Rockcastle, 49, was indicted in Clark County District Court for premeditated murder in the slaying of William Gustafik, 44. Known as "The Manipulator," Gustafik is a former California chiropractor who became a Las Vegas poker pro.

His body was discovered April 13 in the blood-spattered master bedroom of a 23rd floor unit at the Panorama Towers, an upscale condo located just west of the Las Vegas Strip where the pair had leased a unit from an investor who owned several units in the building.

Bedding in the room was washed, but police crime scene investigators found blood on the pillows. The police also found the murder weapon, a knife that they recovered near the building’s rubbish chute.

Rockcastle vanished, only to be captured three days after the murder, when a tip received by the police paid off. Police found her unconscious in a room at the Petit Soleil Bed and Breakfast in San Luis Obispo, California. The police believe she overdosed on an unknown medication. Rockcastle was hospitalized and then extradited from San Luis Obispo to Nevada. Since May she has been held without bail at the Clark County jail where she is represented by the Clark County Public Defender.

In a long, rambling 10-page confession, Jill Rockcastle describes their lives as a crumbling façade built on lies, deceit, and an insatiable craving for a high-rolling lifestyle. She claims Gustafik was addicted to drugs and poker and tells how they made changes to his income tax returns so that his support payments to his ex-wife would be less. According to Rockcastle, Gustafik's chiropractor practice was running into the ground as he focused more and more on poker tournaments, his obsession with getting on television, and living the lifestyle of a poker pro. She stated that Gustafik was losing $70,000 a month at poker.

Is the US looking to buy off Antigua in their trade war over online gaming?

Is Antigua the 'Mouse that Roared?'

We haven’t talked about the US versus Antigua and their World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute in a while, but new information is available right now.

According to Antigua’s attorney, Mark Mendel, the small Caribbean nation of fewer than 80,000 residents plans to file a claim asking for compensation from the US in exchange for a ban on Internet gambling.

Compensation is one way to resolve the dispute

Filing a compensation claim is one of the avenues open to Antigua although, according to Mendel, determining how much compensation is required to offset US actions is difficult to determine. Mendel said that Antigua will also continue on the WTO track, because the US will have difficulty withdrawing from its WTO commitments.

Figuring the price

Compensation would probably be predicated on the loss of income for the 32 registered online casinos in Antigua. Income fell to $130 million last year from a high water mark of $1 billion in 2000, when US restrictions on online gaming were first announced.

Earlier this month the US moved to "clarify" its commitments to the WTO, saying that opening its market to offshore Internet gambling was "never intended" to be part of pledges made when joining the trade arbiter.

How the WTO rules come into play

WTO rules provide for a country to withdraw from commitments to open its services market to foreign competition. But it can't opt out of tariff cuts. Instead, the US will have to negotiate with any countries that object to the USA’s plans. By all appearances, the resolution to this WTO dispute will probably be a negotiated settlement between the US and Antigua, unless other larger and more powerful nations, who might want to have Antigua’s back in this situation, stand with them and make similar demands once the US declares its intention to back off on its commitments.

The USA's level of hypocrisy can be overwhelming at times

Perhaps Antigua’s attorney, Mark Mendel put it best when he noted, "While the withdrawal of a commitment might be at least understandable if the US possessed a strongly anti-gambling culture, this is certainly not the case here."

Hold'em Radio Poker Weekend: Terrific Fun for All

In Las Vegas For the Weekend
Sorry for the lack of posts over the past few days. I was in Las Vegas where I took part in a series of poker tournaments sponsored by Hold’em Radio. As most of my readers know, I’m a show host there, and Amy Calistri and I broadcast Keep Flopping Aces, every Thursday night, live, world-wide, in real time at 9:00 PM Eastern and 6:00 PM Pacific time.

If you haven’t listened before, just point your browser to http://www.holdemradio.com/ and click the “listen” button on the web site. If you’re not in the time zones mentioned above, you’ll have to figure out the time change and tune in during the broadcast. You can also listen to previously recorded shows in the station’s archives, or download Keep Flopping Aces as an i-Tunes podcast and listen to us at your leisure.

I usually broadcast from home, but the station is headquartered in Las Vegas, right in the tournament area of Binion’s poker room, and it’s always more enjoyable to broadcast in person, so I drove up Thursday in order to do my show live, with Amy connected via Skype from her home in Austin, Texas.

A lot of Hold’em Radio’s audience descended on Binion’s for a couple of poker tournaments that were held on Saturday and Sunday. Most of them were listeners I had never met in person before, and that was a lot of fun for me.

Warning: Actual Poker Content
Friday was a free day for me, so I ventured over to the Wynn to play some poker. I put myself on the board for $15-$30 and $30-$60 Texas hold’em, but the bigger game never materialized so I played $15-$30 hold’em for the duration of the afternoon.

The game was very good, at least for a while. Two contributors were supporting the game, and both played until they went broke a few times and then left. Each one was replaced by a better player, and at some point the game was not very lucrative at all.

I did manage to make one good laydown. I was dealt J-J in the cutoff seat. The guy to my right was first to enter the pot by calling. I raised and was able to drop the button and both blinds. The guy to my right, who appeared to be a very straightforward player, called and we took the flop two-handed. It wasn’t threatening at all, three different suits and T-6-3. My opponent checked. I bet. He said, “I’m just gonna raise you one time.”

That statement from a guy who was playing very A-B-C poker and was not a chatterbox at the table was like a red flag. I folded immediately, saying, “Your set is good,” and he showed me his pocket pair of sixes.

Breakfast with the Boys (and Girl)
Friday evening was a reception for the Hold’em Radio tournament attendees, and Dr. Alan Schoonmaker, who is also a show host on the station, attended. He reminded me about the Saturday morning poker discussion breakfast that’s held every week at the Omelet House on Maryland Parkway. I’ve been there before, and the poker minds that usually gather around the table are quite sharp, and I never fail to learn or reinforce something about poker.
I showed up at 8:15 AM, fifteen minutes early, but Dr. Al and Warren, two of the regulars had beaten me there. We were soon joined by poker author Jim Briar, Michael, and Robin (aka “Poker Babe”) who I’ve known since the first Wednesday Las Vegas Poker Discussion Group I attended years ago.

We stuffed ourselves and discussed poker hands, and it’s always interesting to see how many ways there are to play a given hand in a given situation.

Warning: More Poker Content
The tournament began at 1:00 PM and ended for me at about 7:00 PM, when I busted out at the final table in fourth place. For me it was a remarkable accomplishment though I was frustrated that I did not win it. I was shortstacked for much of the day after a foolish play on my part.

Two players were already in the pot when I raised about three times the big blind before the flop with a pocket pair of jacks and was cold called by a player to my left. I bet the flop, which was completely ragged, and the guy to my left made the minimum possible raise. All of my hackles sat up and took notice—as if my opponent was telling me he made a small raise in order to lure me on with his big hand.

That was not a hand I had to play but I chose to ignore that little voice inside my head. I had him covered but lost most of my chips when he showed me the pair of aces he virtually told me he had, if only I wasn’t too stubborn to listen.

That ugly little episode took place at about 2:30 PM, so I just hung around and hung around until I was able to start building my small stack just before the final table some four hours later. That was the good news. On the other hand, had I played a little smarter I would have had plenty of chips and would have avoided all those short stacked situations, such as going all-in with a lone ace, in order to hope you can win the blinds and survive another orbit.

Considering the circumstances, finishing fourth was not all that bad, though it broke my winning streak of two or three hold’em radio tournaments in a row.

The next day I didn’t even make the money, getting eliminated when I was pot committed and was checkraised all-in by an opponent who had called my raise before the flop with a pocket pair of fours, called my bet on a benign looking flop when I had an overpair and then checkraised me all-in when he turned a set. It was a hand I was bound to go broke on regardless of how I played it and I was out the door in about fifteenth place.

All in all a great trip. Loads of fun, and profitable too, because of my tournament placing and a good day in a nice cash game at the Wynn.

I had a nice dinner with Richard Burke and his wife. Richard is a fellow writer at Poker Player Newspaper who was in town and also played in Sunday’s tournament, finishing third overall. The only drawback was getting up at 4:00 AM Monday morning to drive home to Palm Springs. I do that to avoid traffic, and catch the back roads through Cima, Amboy, and 29 Palms just as the sun is rising. It’s shorter than the freeway by about 50 miles and a much more pleasant ride for anyone traveling from the Coachella Valley to Las Vegas.

I wanted to sleep in, but my editing duties with Poker Player Newspaper, ignored for three days, were calling loud and clear, and it was time to rise up early and soldier on. Despite that early wake-up call, it was a wonderful weekend, proof positive you can still have fun in a cardroom.

Joe Hachem elected to the World Poker Association’s Board of Directors

Joe Hachem, the popular Australian poker pro who won the 2004 World Series of Poker has been elected to the World Poker Association’s Board of Directors and will Chair the WPA's Membership Committee. Hachem will be the organization’s face during a major membership drive to be held during the 2007 World Series of Poker.

“I’m both pleased and honored to be chosen to serve on the World Poker Association Board of Directors,” Hachem said today. “I strongly support the WPA’s efforts to promote ethics and integrity in poker, and am happy to take a leadership role in the organization.”

The World Poker Association announced last week that it plans a major membership drive during the 2007 World Series of Poker, and a highly visible booth just steps from the main entrance of the WSOP tournament area. “I want to help the World Poker Association grow its membership,” Hachem said, “and that means I will be manning the booth from time to time and so will many of my fellow professional players.”

Hachem added, “If you want autographs; if you want to talk poker with me and other top-notch professionals, come visit us at the World Poker Association booth. It will give you a chance to join the only organization that promotes professionalism in poker, and pick up some poker tips too.”

Each member of the WPA is pledged to uphold and support the highest standards of ethical conduct in tournament poker activities. All voting members have a voice in WPA policy by becoming active on WPA committees and they are encouraged to inquire about openings on committees such as: ethics and conduct, annual conference, international, dealer relations,rules, government relations, and charity.

Prospective members of the World Poker Association can join by registering online at http://www.wpapoker.org/, or by signing up at the WPA booth at the 2007 WSOP The cost is $50 annually to become a voting member, $25 annually to become a non-voting member, and $1,000 to become a founding member.

Texas Poker Legalization DOA

HB 3186, the Texas bill that would have legalized poker in the Lone Star State, died a procedural death in the Texas state legislature, after failing to reach the floor for a second reading before the midnight deadline.

That’s the way they kill bills that do not have a great deal of support. The bill was placed toward the bottom of a 23-page legislative calendar, almost guaranteeing that it would not surface for a second reading before its allotted time expired.

State Representative Jose Menendez, who sponsored the bill and emphasized that it would create a well-regulated environment for poker, said the action was taken because: "A lot of my colleagues are afraid that voting for legalizing poker might hurt them in their next election. In particular, my Republican friends are the ones that are afraid of their primary voters."

Menendez has not said whether he will reintroduce his poker legislation in subsequent years, despite the fact that poker is supported by most Texans in public opinion polls.

Failure to pass the Menendez bill means, of course, license to strike for the Dallas swat team. They are fond of raiding poker games by kicking down doors with guns drawn, as if they were about to bag a bounty of terrorists. For more on the poker climate of fear in Texas, see my blog entry dated: Wednesday, November 22, 2006, entitled: Dallas SWAT teams raid local poker rooms.

Seven Things About Me Blog Chain

Damn you, Amy Calistri. You tagged me for the 7 Things About Me blog chain. My first inclination was to ignore it, because I am an extremely private person and I hate these sorts of things. You know the kind. Send this to seven friends within 24 hours and you’ll have good karma forever; don’t do it and you’ll die in pain.

But Amy is my radio partner, one of my closest friends in poker, fellow blogger, and I like the community of bloggers way too much to ignore this, so despite my instincts to the contrary, here goes.

1. Motivation: My two greatest motivators have always been fear of failing and avoiding shame. While I’d rather fail high than succeed low, I’m still going to do anything and everything I can to avoid failing. Shame, to me, is worse. The idea of embarrassing myself is something I hate, and I can’t ever see myself cavorting around like some of today’s movie stars, and poker players too, who are seemingly unconcerned with shame, embarrassment, and looking like complete shmucks in public.

2. Reluctance: I’ve always been reluctant to talk about myself. Maybe it was my upbringing. When I was a kid in Brooklyn I never heard adults ask anyone what they did for a living. I was always admonished by my parents to never ask what someone did for a living, and to never to ask how much someone earned. At a minimum, it was a real social faux pas to ask these kinds of questions. It was worse if what that something your neighbor did was outside the law.

3. Defining Myself: For the longest time, I couldn’t decide whether I was a poker player who wrote or a writer who played poker. When I began writing for poker magazines back in 1992 and published my first book in 1995, I was working as a management consultant and playing poker in Los Angeles about 20 to 30 hours a week or more. I was unsure which hat I wore more often.

But once 2003 rolled around and the poker boom took hold, the poker book boom took hold too. I had so many opportunities to write books that I decided I had better seize this opportunity while it was available. In 2006 I had four books published. I didn’t play much poker at all last year, except for short sessions online while taking breaks from writing. I had morphed into a writer who played poker rather than a poker player who wrote. I got to like it. It’s probably reflected in my role models too.

My hero since I was old enough to understand what he was writing about was William Butler Yeats. My role model for poker writing, although he has written about so eloquently about so much more than poker is Al Alvarez. Yeats and Alvarez occupy front-row center seats on the plinth reserved for my role models. No pure poker player is up there with them. The answer, for me, is now crystal clear: I’m a writer first and a poker player when my writing is done.

4. Fear: I have always had a fear of heights, except when the height was something I could scale by climbing. When we were kids, there were two apartment houses on my block with a very narrow passageway between them that led from the street to the next street. You could put your ass on one wall and your feet on the others and inch your way up between the two buildings to the roof, which was five floors above ground.

If I went up to the roof by the staircase in the building, I would be afraid to get too close to the ledge and peek over. But when I inched my way up, I had no fear at all. In case you want to try this at home, the best gear is a new, stiff pair of jeans; they have the most friction and are great for assing your way up between the two walls.

5. Violence: I had an incredible amount of violence locked inside me as a kid, and it wasn’t repressed either. My father was sick with cancer for three years before he died, and I was very angry over losing him to an illness I was unable to fight against on his behalf.

During the time my father was sick, I fought regularly. I threw one kid through a plate glass window and busted another kid’s jaw with a baseball bat in a fight. I once stuffed someone down an open sewer and left him there. Another time I got into a fight with a guy who pulled a knife. In a slashing blow he opened up an 8-inch cut on my rib cage. In college I dangled a guy out the window on the ninth floor after he made some disparaging remark about my being poor.

My last fight was in the army. It was the last night of basic training and everyone was in the barracks drinking and getting drunk. We were all shipping out in the morning, and no one held anything back. The vibe was ugly and getting worse, so I figured I’d get out of there and take a walk. I was in the latrine when this guy who didn’t like me walked in there with a broken bottle, saying he was going to kill me.

I was peeing at the time and said, “OK, let me zip up and you can take your chances.” I had my field jacket slung over my shoulder. The other guy, his name was Frankie, was anything but subtle and I knew he was going to bull rush me. He charged, and I did what you’re supposed to do under the circumstances. I flipped my field jacket off of my shoulder and onto the broken bottle in his hand. Then I sidestepped his rush, put my hand behind his neck, and ran him head first into the urinal, breaking his nose in the process.

There was blood all over the place, so we called the duty sergeant and told him Frankie had an accident and broke his nose. The next day I was on a plane for Ft. Sam Houston, Texas. I never saw Frankie, nor had a fight again. I never hope to.

6. Enjoyment: The most enjoyable thing I’ve done in years is to get involved with HoldemRadio and host Keep Flopping Aces with Amy Calistri. Just being on the radio, with a chance to talk about poker and other things is more fun than anything I’ve ever done. We’ve been doing this show for more than a year. We’re not making a dime from it. But I always look forward to a broadcast. It’s hard to explain why it’s so much fun. It just is.

7. Crowds Frighten Me: I don’t like crowds. One of the disturbing things about the growth of the World Series of Poker is walking into a room with 200+ tables and seeing it filled to the brim, with hallways and walkways filled to capacity too. Yes, I understand the benefits to the industry that all these crowds bring to the WSOP, but something’s lost in the process too, something about the informality, the lack of rules, the ability to just work your way right up to the rail and watch from close up. All of that is lost in translation. I understand all of this, but I hate crowds.

I hate shopping centers, busy airports, and the claustrophobic feeling I get when I’m hemmed in and the space is full, noisy, bustling, busy, and all I want to do, to quote Warren Zevon, is “Roll down the windows, and let me scream!”

I’m not tagging anyone else. I’m late to the dance. The blogger’s pyramid is awfully small, and I’m thinking anyone I would tag has already been chosen.

Study Shows Gambling Continues to Grow

According to an American Gaming Association (AGA) study, gambling’s growth continues to generate tourism revenues, with US casinos revenues growing 6.8% to a record $32.4 billion last year.

The biggest gambling states based on casino revenue were Nevada at $12.6 billion, New Jersey at $5.2 billion, Indiana at $2.6 billion, Mississippi at $2.6 billion, Louisiana at $2.6 billion, and Illinois at $1.9 billion.

Poker continued to grow in Nevada and New Jersey, though a slowdown in the growth rate was noted.

Gaming revenue exceeds $500 billion a year in the United States and the number of casino-bound Americans has doubled in the past five years.

Flattening the Payout Structure at the 2007 WSOP

Most players who finish in the money in 2007 World Series of Poker events will receive a higher percentage of the prize pools than last year.

Harrah's is increasing the return to players who, after hours or days of grueling competition, are able to reach the money. Overall, 846 players last year would have won substantially more money – in some case, more than double – what they collected in 2006. The top 27 players would have received less, however.

For example, the 2006 Main Event would have paid $22,266 for 873rd through 775th places, up from $14,605 or $15,512. Places 82 through 73 would have paid $126,173, up from $66,010. First place would have paid $10,028,715, down from $12 million, while second place would have been worth $5,442,769, compared with $6,105,900.

“We discussed this concept with our poker operations team and with members of the WSOP Players Advisory Council and the consensus was that spreading the wealth is the right thing to do,” said Howard Greenbaum, regional vice president of specialty gaming for Harrah’s.

“The new schedules are designed to increase the rewards to players who finish in the money but don’t reach the final table.” The new payout schedules are posted at www.worldseriesofpoker.com and indicate the percentage payouts for different numbers of players for different games.

Al Schoonmaker's Terrific New Book: Your Worst Poker Enemy

My good friend, Alan Schoonmaker, Ph.D., just authored a new book entitled Your Worst Poker Enemy. Like that old sage of the swamps, Pogo the comic-strip possum used to say, “We have met the enemy, and he is us.”

We are all our own worst enemies in so many ways. Nothing new under that sun, but Dr. Al’s book brings it all back home where it belongs—to the poker table.

Schoonmaker’s book is organized under the premise that since poker is a game of incomplete information, information management is its critical skill.

The first part of his book asks and then discusses this question: “Which is better, logic or intuition?” One of Schoonmaker’s main themes is that except for a very few gifted people, logic works better than intuition and has the advantages of being correctable, teachable, and something you can build upon too.

The second section of this book is entitled “Evaluating Ourselves and the Opposition.” This is where many players’ overreaching egos cost them money. I’m willing to wager that if you took a lap around any poker table and asked each player if he or she thought themselves above average, below average, or just about average, the majority would rate themselves above average. But they can’t be right. After all, by definition, there must be as many players below average as above it.

This is a section that ought to be closely read by any player who is not achieving the results he thinks he should. If you read it carefully and are willing to leave a typical poker player’s states of denial at the door, it ought to pay dividends for you.

Subsequent sections are entitled, “Understanding Unconscious and Emotional Forces,” “Adjusting to Changes,” and “Handling Stress.” And there you have it; a hard and deep look in 336 pages at the inside workings of our most dangerous and devious adversary at the poker table. Ourselves.

This book will go a long way to help any poker player willing to drop his defenses and denial, to recognize and defeat the psychological factors that can distort his perceptions, and thereby wreck his best efforts and undermine the very core of his poker skill.

The book carries a list price of $15.95, and is published by Lyle Stuart–Kensington. It’s available at bookstores everywhere.

The Hypocrisy of it All

As expected, Barney Frank’s proposed legislation to de-claw the Unlawful Internet gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA) was strongly opposed by a group of sports organizations that included the National Football League (NFL) and the National Basketball Association (NBA.)

In a hypocritical letter from Rich Buchanan, vice president and general counsel of the NBA and William Daly, deputy commissioner of the National Hockey League, to the House Financial Services Committee that Frank chairs, the coalition wrote, “We write to thank this Committee for its leadership in the last Congress in enacting the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006, and urge the Committee to reject proposals to reverse itself on the issue.”

The letter stated that betting on sports can “corrupt athlete’s contests or create the appearance of corruption.” They went on to say, “Our sports organizations would very strongly oppose any effort to legalize any online sports gambling.”

I’m glad to report that I’m not the only person to see the blatant double-standard hypocrisy in their stance.

TheHill.com reported last week that Tom Lizardo, chief of staff to Financial Services panel member Ron Paul (R-TX) replied to the letter this way: “Please don’t tell me something about the altruism of professional sports, especially the NFL. Maybe they could spend a bit more time and effort making sure your retired players are not living in poverty with the billions you make on the Super bowl.”

TheHill.com also reported that UIGEA’s critics complained about fantasy sports leagues being allowed to operate, which resemble sports betting so closely. One industry lobbyist is quoted as saying: “The fantasy leagues not only produce millions of dollars for Major League Baseball; they also stir interest in baseball, football and other sports.”
And while we’re at it, if gambling online is bad, why is horseracing exempt, and if gambling in general is bad, why do the majority of states allow some form of it, and why are state governments themselves deeply involved in promoting gaming through lotteries?

I think it’s time for the hypocrites in professional sports to shut up, sit down, and start over.

US Thumbs Its Nose at World Trade Organization on Gaming Issues

The United States decision to maintain its ban on Internet gambling despite a World Trade Organization (WTO) ruling to the contrary affords an opportunity for other WTO signatories to seek damages at the WTO.

Deputy U.S. Trade Representative John Veroneau argues the party line, and does not believe that there is any basis for other countries to receive compensation. According to Veroneau, Antigua’s case took advantage of an error made by the United States in drafting its commitment to the WTO that opened up the American recreational services market.

According to Veroneau, "U.S. laws banning interstate gambling have been in place for decades. Most WTO Members have similar laws. Unfortunately, in the early 1990s, when the United States was drafting its international commitments to open its market to recreational services, we did not make it clear that these commitments did not extend to gambling. Moreover, back in 1993 no WTO member could have reasonably thought that the United States was agreeing to commitments in direct conflict with its own laws."

Regardless of intentions, dispute settlement findings under WTO rules are based on written commitments and other international documents, rather than intentions. The United States has always supported rules-based trading but now they plan to modify its 14-year-old services commitments and explicitly exclude gambling.

If the US decides to modify its trade commitments after the fact, it would be only the second time in WTO history that this has been done. The first case resulted in an expensive settlement.

Antigua's finance and economy minister, Dr. Errol Cort, said, "While we had of course been aware of the possibility of the United States taking such an action, we frankly considered it extremely unlikely. It is almost incomprehensible that the United States would take such an action in the face of an adverse dispute resolution ruling. This is going to have very severe consequences for the global free trade movement.

"We are now reviewing our options," said Cort, "and will be proceeding to use the WTO institutions to get full compensation for our citizens in the event the United States actually pursues this most regrettable action. We would strongly urge the United States to reconsider its decision."

This kind of brinksmanship threatens the viability of the World Trade Organization itself, and represents a big bet by the United States. Essentially the US has taken the stand that no one will side with tiny Antigua in their dispute and that they will skate, or at worst have to pay a small sum of money as compensation to the Antiguan government. At the same time, the US is pursuing a case against China on a variety of issues, and it’s hard to think that thumbing their nose at the WTO on one dispute would curry favor in their case against China, where the stakes are much bigger.

At this point it seems like we’re about to play “Let’s Make A Deal.” The tiny nation of Antigua, with a mere 70,000 citizens, cannot pressure the US with trade sanctions. But they can suspend intellectual property and copyright agreements, thus allowing their country to become a haven for software and publishing pirates. Although allowable by WTO rule under certain conditions, that’s not likely to happen. What is likely to happen is that the USA will simply pay off Antigua to go away.

If they do, they’ll try to do so quietly, in the dead of night, while no one is watching, just like they did when enacting UIGEA.

Shelley Berkley Asks For Study of Online Gambling by the National Academy of Sciences

I’m hearing from sources everywhere that Nevada Congresswoman Shelley Berkley introduced a bill proposing an independent, 12 month study of online gambling by the National Academy of Sciences. There has been talk about the coming of this bill for some time now, but until yesterday, I was unaware of when it might be introduced.

Reports I’ve read and knowledgeable sources told me that the bill already has the support of 60 other members of Congress, including Frank LoBiondo, John Conyers, and chairman of the House Financial Services Committee Barney Frank.

The idea of a study by the politically independent National Academy of Sciences is the position recommended and favored by the American Gaming Association, the organization that represents the big, land-based casinos, such as MGM Mirage, Caesars, Bellagio, the Wynn—all the big players.

Berkley does not take sides on the issue of online gambling. Instead, her proposed legislation calls for an unbiased look at online gaming, as well as technologies for excluding underage and problem gamblers. Berkley said, “One of the advantages of this legislation is that it doesn’t take a side. It doesn’t say Internet gambling is good or bad. It says ‘Let’s study the issue.’"

This approach offers an advantage to any legislator looking to get out form under the insanity of the Unlawful Internet Gaming Enforcement Act (UIGEA) that was rammed through in the middle of the night, with no debate, after being attached to some must pass port security legislation. Congress can vote to study the issue without doing a flip-flop on first voting for UIGEA and then voting against it. It also offers a middle ground of sorts for legislators unwilling to support Barney Frank’s legislation.

Once the study is complete, Congress can prop themselves up against the National Academy of Science’s study and use it as leverage to reverse their earlier, ill-considered decision to support UIGEA. I’m hoping all of this will come to pass right after the next presidential election. Time will tell.

Is Poker Skill or Luck?

Is poker a game of skill or a game of luck? That’s not as esoteric a question as one might think, and a number of court cases — most notable one in North Carolina and another in across the ocean in London — hinged on that very question.

Most of the legal wrangling centered on determining the preponderance of skill or luck in poker. In my opinion, determining skill versus luck is not a function of looking at any given hand, but one of bounding the issue. In other words, how long does a game of poker take?

If you were to conclude that each hand constitutes a “game,” then poker is surely a game where luck predominates. But if a “game” is construed as lasting a year, or five years, or ten years, or even a lifetime, then skill prevails. In the long run, a player’s results tend to mirror his or her expectation — for better or for worse.

In other words, if you play poker long enough, you figure to reap what you sow. In the short run, anything can happen.

I can’t prove that for you, but there are a few people who would like to try. Jay Kadane, a statistician at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, believes that statistics can be used to show what makes some players better than others. Kadane, in fact, is seeking potential sponsors to fund a project that would mine data — and he’s talking about huge databases of hand histories that online poker providers have available — to prove that poker is a game of skill.

University of Chicago economist Steven Levitt, who co-wrote the best-selling book Freakonomics, is touting a project he calls, Pokernomics. Levitt wants to analyze a few million hands of Texas hold’em in order to assess what makes a person a good or bad poker player. Levitt, who is working without any assistance from the poker industry, invites players to email in their own hand histories but requires a minimum of 10,000 hands per player.

And if you can’t prove that poker is a game of skill, you can always legislate it. Representative Robert Wexler (D-FL) says he has drafted, though not yet introduced, a more specific bill that Barney Frank’s. "My bill will say that poker is a skill," he says.

Yahoo Goes Live With Real-Money Poker Site

Yahoo Poker, a real money online poker room, was launched by Yahoo, the search engine and internet service provider.

Yahoo’s partner in this venture is Gibraltar based St. Minver Ltd. Yahoo Poker will run on the International Poker Network (IPN), a site offering both poker rooms and sportsbooks. Yahoo Poker plans to market to the European poker market. US based players will not be able to play at Yahoo Poker because of the Unlawful Internet Gaming Enforcement Act (UIGEA).

Although Yahoo Poker is the first Internet Service Provider (ISP) to offer real money play, AOL has a play money website, and Microsoft includes play money poker with their Windows Vista system.

If UIGEA is overturned, I’d look for AOL and Microsoft, as well as Yahoo and who-knows-who-else, to offer real money online poker to customers in the United States and worldwide.