Captured: The JJProdigy Affair

Crime does not pay. Not even online.

A recent $200 buy-in tournament on Partypoker yielded a first prize of $140,000 won by a player named ABlackCar. But the black car never drove off with the money. Partypoker discovered that ABlackCar was just one of the screen names used by online player JJProdigy. Party acted quickly, deciding that ABlackCar would be stripped of his prize entirely, and that players below him on the leader board would each be moved up one place.

This incident quickly became a major focus of discussion online, particularly on the Two Plus Two forum, where JJProdigy attempted to defend himself. He spun a story alleging that the second account was for his grandmother, but it never held water. The truth came out, and he confessed to setting up the second account as well as playing both of them during the tournament.

He also alleged that many other online players do the same thing. Whether he knows this for a fact, or is merely alleging it to deflect and diffuse some of the unwanted attention he’s received isn’t clear. But in the end it doesn’t matter. He’s guilty. We know it. The online sites know it, and his goose appears to be cooked unless he figures some other way to resurface in the future.

Party isn’t the only site that’s canned him, either. When PokerStars got wind of the affair, their own investigation into JJProdigy found enough fire in all the smoke to justify closing him down on their site too.

The JJProdigy affair may be a blessing in disguise, especially if it leads other online sites to redouble their efforts to prevent and apprehend similar scammers.

Oregon's successful experience with tavern poker tournaments

Since last August, businesses in Oregon have been allowed to hold poker tournaments. With six months of history to draw on, a track record has been established regarding any issues that may have arisen from these tournaments. The Oregon record is something other locales might scrutinize, especially if they are contemplating legalizing poker tournaments in bars and taverns.

A track record is far stronger evidence than the mere conjecture of anti-gambling adherents, who seem prone to whip up a froth of hell and damnation whenever talk of legalized poker surfaces. Unfortunately for the anti-poker gang, Oregon’s track record collapses all of their arguments.

According the Oregon Register-Guard, those establishments offering poker tournaments in the Springfield, Oregon area all report successful, problem-free results. "It's gone very well, and everybody seems to enjoy it, we've had no problems." Said Shalee Stockton, of the Woodsman Pub, a business that hosts Texas hold’em tournaments.

Stockton’s assessment is borne out by Police Chief Jerry Smith, who said that he’s received no complaints since the games began last August. Smith noted that this type of social gambling has not been a problem for law enforcement at all.

This is a real change from the attitude in other parts of the country, where bars have been raided, players cited, and equipment seized. The Oregon ordinance — which might serve as a workable model for other jurisdictions — requires licensed tournament organizers to ensure fiar games and efficient tournaments.

I’m hoping the Oregon model catches on elsewhere…..

Internet Gambling Prohibition Act introduced

Rep. Bob Goodlatte, R-Va. recently introduced the Internet Gambling Prohibition Act, a bill designed to clarify existing law and give the Department of Justice greater authority to prosecute.

Although anti-gaming activists claim the Federal Wire Act of 1961 technically makes online gaming illegal in the United States, the Department of Justice has been reluctant to prosecute violators because language in the law only addresses telephone lines and cables, not satellite, microwave and other forms of wireless communication.

Goodlatte's bill is aimed at strengthening the Federal Wire Act to include wireless technology and the prohibition of gambling. Adherents claim it provides for greater restrictions and gives the DOJ more authority to prosecute illegal Internet gambling.

This bill seems very similar to a bill Goodlatte introduced five years ago that was defeated, ironically enough, in part through the efforts of discredited lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

The earlier Goodlatte's bill would have made it illegal to gamble online while providing law enforcement the wherewithal to put the kibosh on funding transfers to online gaming sites via credit card. But since most of the credit card companies already prohibit transfers and payments to internet gambling sites, that issue is moot.

It’s difficult to see how a bill could be structured to stop foreign based fiscal intermediaries such as Neteller from processing these transfers, since they are not bound by US law. It’s also difficult to imagine that law enforcement agencies have the resources to go after individuals who are playing poker online.

From a police perspective, enforcing this kind of legislation is expensive, and a low priority when it comes to the priorities law enforcement has to make when they consider how best to deploy their sworn officers. It also carries with it the potential to make law enforcement personnel look as foolish as they do when they periodically raid some poker game at a senior citizen’s home. If I were a Chief of Police, enforcing a law like this is the last thing I’d want to do, because busting people playing poker online does nothing to prevent crime and provide public safety.

As this bill progresses through Congress, I’ll keep tabs on it and keep you all current via my blog.

Andy Beal Wins Big

Never take predictions too close to heart. Especially mine. Earlier I posted that Andy Beal was at a severe disadvantage against the Corporation, because they can take turns playing against him, and they have the benefit of their immense, collective poker knowledge, while he is left to go it more or less alone.

So much for edges. As I write this, Beal is back in Texas some $7 million to $10 million ahead, depending on whose figures you choose to believe. At the stakes he was playing, that represents somewhere between 70 and 100 big bets. In terms I can relate to, if they were playing $20-$40, that would represents a win for Beal and a loss to the Corporation of between $2,800 and $4,000. While that seems to be a fairly big loss for a $20-40 game, it is not over the top by any means.

If you are more familiar with $4-$8 games than $20-$40, you are looking at sums ranging between $560 and $800.

But when the stakes are $50,000-$100,000, you're looking at more money than most players will earn in a lifetime, and all those zeros seem to magnify the game's impact dramatically.

So what happens next? Will there be another round? Quien sabe? Most of the Corporation is in California playing poker for the next couple of weeks, and after their staggering loss I imagine they will have to regroup, and see who among them is interested and willing to reinvest in order to have another go at Andy Beal. It may be that they decide against another go-round. If that's the case, it will represent a collective opinion on their part that playing Beal offers them no edge, no positive EV. If that's the way they see things, there's no reason to play when the game has become a gamble at stakes like those.

I'm sure Beal would like to keep playing as long as poker is interesting to him. He seems not to like quitting when he is losing, nor when he is winning, and in my opinion, he's good to go until he tires of poker and turns his mind to some other, more compelling challenge.

The Corporation, in my opinion, saw this match not so much as a challenge but an opportunity that provided an edge to them. If that edge is gone, there's no reason for them to continue playing. But if they still believe they have the edge on Andy Beal, look for another round coming to a casino near you sometime in the future.

Can Andy Beal Defeat the Corporation?

My good friend and sometimes writing partner Dr. Arthur Reber suggested to me that regardless of relative skill levels, Andy Beal will always have an uphill struggle against the Corporation. He is faced with having to beat a rotating set of team players rather than just one opponent.

If you assume the skill levels are equal or close to it, Beal will probably have to play significantly better than the Corporation to survive. It can be done, but Beal won’t have an easy time of it. Even the best heads-up, limit hold’em player in the world would find the going very difficult against the next six players.

Beal, after all, is always in the game. The rotating coterie of Corporation players take turns playing. They have a chance to rest, to discuss play, strategy, tactics, and tendencies they see emerging. Beal can’t do this. He doesn’t have a fresh set of eyes spotting trends while he is playing. He has to be simultaneously playing the game as well as observing it to keep up with the Corporation.

Moreover, Beal has to adjust to the playing nuances of each Corporation player who sits at the table with him. The Corporation players only have to learn the playing style — or styles — of Andy Beal.

Beal is playing without a second. No chess grandmaster playing for the world’s chess championship would even think of entering a match without a group of seconds — players who are not his equal, but close enough so that they can provide insights into his game and that of his adversary — in order to analyze larger developing trends as well as specific tactical options that might be brought to bear in adjourned games.

Two heads, or in this case six, are usually better than one, and after thinking about Reber’s observations, I think Andy Beal has bitten off a lot to chew. That he can even stay close is remarkable. So is the match. When millions of dollars are on the table in the biggest poker game Las Vegas has ever seen, everything is magnified, analyzed, discussed, and dissected -- seemingly overnight and at warp speed. I guess that's the way it should be.

Andy Beal's Short Poker Hiatus

Well, it didn’t take my prediction too long to come true. Lisa Wheeler, writing on Sunday February 12, in Cardplayer.com said: “. . . a credible source informed Card Player on Saturday at 6 p.m. PST that Beal was on a plane to Las Vegas to continue the high-stakes-limit-hold’em-heads-up matches that have peaked (sic) the interest of poker enthusiasts and become media fodder over the past several years.”

Beal’s retirement lasted a grand total of five days, and ended the very evening of the day I predicted that he would lick his wounds, go home to work on his game, and return to challenge the Corporation one more time.

Michael Craig’s book The Professor, The Banker and the Suicide King, which documents earlier encounters between Beal and the coterie of professional poker players he plays against for sums the vast majority of us would consider somewhere between staggering and other-worldly, will soon have sufficient fodder for an epilogue, or maybe even another book. And I, for one, would like to read it.

Given his uber-competitive nature and ego, there’s just no way Beal could have kept away from the game unless he developed another all-consuming passion or he was convinced that he did not have the ability of the Corporation players. Craig’s book provides enough insight into Beal’s personality to realize that the only way he’s putting this game in the rear view mirror is after a convincing win.

I knew he’d be back; I just never realized how quickly. And the fact that he’s back so quickly suggests that he believes no extended time off for tinkering with his game is necessary and that he possesses all the right stuff needed to win.

We’ll see. But in the meantime, it’s game on, everyone’s gonna be watching, and I’m glad. Good luck to both sides.

Has Andy Beal Given Up Poker?

According to a number of articles online, Andy Beal will not be participating in the 2006 NBC National Heads-Up Poker Championship and is apparently finished with poker. This occurred after Beal dropped $3 million in a series of $50,000-$100,000 limit hold’em matches against the Corporation, a group of professional poker players with an aggregated bankroll who took turns playing heads-up Texas hold’em against the billionaire banker, real estate mogul, and mathematical theorist.

Reports had Beal ahead about $2 million until Ted Forrest sat down and turned it into a $3 million win for the Corporation. Beal’s loss of $3 million, while seemingly an impossible sum for most people to grasp, is really only 30 big-bets at the stakes they were playing, and is akin to losing $1,200 playing $20-$40, or $240 playing $4-$8.

While losing is never fun, a 30 big-bet loss is not the end of the world. Reversals of fortune happen every day at the poker table, though they're seldom of this magnitude. Although Beal’s PR representative stated that “. . . he’s done with poker for good,” I don’t buy it. Not for a minute. Here’s why.

· A three-million dollar loss to Andy Beal is not catastrophic. It’s not even close. He can afford it.
· Beal is an extraordinarily competitive guy. While I do expect him to lick his wounds, I don’t expect him to give up the game.

My take on all of this is that Andy Beal will sit back and think long and hard about his poker game. Once convinced that he has as much ability as his opponents, he 'll analyze what went wrong. Then he’ll tinker with his game in order to improve it.

And while he’s doing that, he’ll probably take things one step further by thinking about how the Corporation will adjust to any changes he makes. By doing that, he'll have a trick or two at his disposal, ready to be pulled out of his bag, once he’s back in the game and sees Corporation players beginning to change their style based on whatever stylistic adjustments Beal made during his hiatus.

While Andy Beal may tire of poker someday, I don’t expect him to give it up now — on the heels of a loss — particularly one where he was ahead for much of the match. If he gives up poker it will be after a win, when he feels vindicated and can walk away with his head held high.

It may be a year or so before we see another Beal vs. the Corporation big money poker showdown, but we will see it. At least that’s my prediction.

Is WPT's new "Events Division" taking Aim at Matt Savage?

In a press release issued today, February 6, WPT Enterprises announced the launch of its new Events Division. Their new division will offer special programs for corporations, meeting planners, and charitable organizations for entertainment purposes only — not for actual gaming. Some of the ways customers will be able to incorporate the World Poker Tour into their events are for sales meetings, product launches, vendor programs, incentive programs and client parties.

“We plan to leverage the emotion, power, and appeal of the WPT brand to help create and implement custom-made programs that are impeccably executed to meet our customers’ marketing and business objectives,” said Steve Lipscomb, CEO and founder of WPTE.

He went on to say that “. . . every time the World Poker Tour brand touches a consumer or customer, it should positively reinforce the message that the WPT is the gold standard in poker. From our branded chips and cards to the quality of our tables to the expertise of our event personnel, all the way to a chocolate poker chip on a player's pillow at night, our events will be of the highest quality. We strongly believe this standard of excellence will make us the first choice in the poker event arena.”

This could be a shot across the bow of Savage Tournaments partners Matt Savage and Dave Lamb, who have done corporate and charity events, including “Broker Poker” in Southern California, the “Cory Lidle Foundation Poker Tournament,” the “Michael Waltrip Invitational,” and the “Mobil High Performance Invitational,” to cite a few.

Although it appears that WPTE is taking aim at Matt Savage and Dave Lamb by entering corporate and charity poker event organization and management, it’s more likely a case of a burgeoning market that might be in dire need of more firms like Savage Tournaments. WPTE clearly sees an underserved market there, and if their analysis is correct, it’s more evidence that poker’s arc is still on the ascendancy as it spirals out from cardrooms and televised poker tournaments into corporate and charitable events.